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Brexit – Parliament Takes Control in a Bid to Deliver a Deal

Bob Mason
Another big day ahead on the Brexit front could deliver an unexpected turn and a boost for the Pound. Will Theresa May call it a day to deliver The Deal?

Monday’s Defeat

Those expecting that the British Prime Minister would be succumbing to rebellion pressure to tend her resignation will have been disappointed on Monday.

Following an emergency cabinet session, it was off to Parliament on hopes that the troops would rally behind the Party leader.

No such luck. Perhaps in the wake of a series of defeats, there was a little too much hope.

Parliament voted 329 against 302 in favor of controlling Parliament’s scheduling of votes starting from Wednesday.

The purpose of the vote in favor of control is to remove the government’s scheduling power and introduce a timetable of votes on Wednesday to deliver a majority decision on Brexit.

Following a Brexit stalemate that ultimately led to the extension of Article 50 to 22 nd May, there are some that hope Parliament will be able to deliver a path that a ruling party has been unable to do.

British Prime Minister Theresa May acknowledged that she would take part in Wednesday’s session in a constructive manner. It does remain to be seen, however, whether an orderly session will ensue and deliver a much-needed resolution.

If Monday’s session is anything to go by, it will be interesting viewing at the very least.

What’s Left for the British PM?

Theresa May will be working behind the scenes to garner support for the deal that had been once voted out by Parliament. Rebellion in the ranks has led to calls for her resignation. While her days appear to be numbered, anything remains possible.

Interestingly, there could be an outcome that fails to deliver the democratic vote altogether. Failure to make any progress in finding a resolution could ultimately result in canceling Brexit. When considering the fact that a single political party was unable to deliver on Brexit, how will cross-party debate solve the Brexit puzzle?

This is perhaps the British PM’s avenue for success. A failing by the Conservative Party to deliver on Brexit must ultimately mean the end. Not only would it be the end for Theresa May but also the rebels. Political ambitions will come into play and therein lies the opportunity of success for a British PM who essentially fell on her political sword in stepping forward to deliver a favorable path out of the EU.

Theresa May is not done just yet. There is the talk of a possible vote on her Brexit deal as early as today. Its last chance saloon for the British PM and the Tories. The rebels are pushing for the PM to formally announce her resignation. Resignation would be in exchange for support for the deal. A full circle for a handful of politicians that brought a catastrophic end to Britain’s membership with the EU.

The Pound

The Pound bounced around on Monday and will continue to do so in the days ahead. It’s going to be a rollercoaster ride as members from the varying camps on Brexit look to shore up the necessary support to deliver their preferred outcome.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.03% to $1.3199. A choppy start to the day saw the Pound rise to an early high $1.3224 before easing back.

Any hint of a parliamentary vote on Theresa May’s deal and expect the Pound to rally. A deal is going to be better than uncertainty going into what would likely be a chaotic Wednesday.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire