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Should You Be Concerned About UMB Financial Corporation's (NASDAQ:UMBF) Historical Volatility?

Simply Wall St

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Anyone researching UMB Financial Corporation ( NASDAQ:UMBF ) might want to consider the historical volatility of the share price. Volatility is considered to be a measure of risk in modern finance theory. Investors may think of volatility as falling into two main categories. The first category is company specific volatility. This can be dealt with by limiting your exposure to any particular stock. The second type is the broader market volatility, which you cannot diversify away, since it arises from macroeconomic factors which directly affects all the stocks on the market.

Some stocks see their prices move in concert with the market. Others tend towards stronger, gentler or unrelated price movements. Some investors use beta as a measure of how much a certain stock is impacted by market risk (volatility). While we should keep in mind that Warren Buffett has cautioned that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk', beta is still a useful factor to consider. To make good use of it you must first know that the beta of the overall market is one. A stock with a beta below one is either less volatile than the market, or more volatile but not corellated with the overall market. In comparison a stock with a beta of over one tends to be move in a similar direction to the market in the long term, but with greater changes in price.

View our latest analysis for UMB Financial

What does UMBF's beta value mean to investors?

With a beta of 0.93, (which is quite close to 1) the share price of UMB Financial has historically been about as voltile as the broader market. If the future looks like the past, we could therefore consider it likely that the stock price will experience share price volatility that is roughly similar to the overall market. Share price volatility is well worth considering, but most long term investors consider the history of revenue and earnings growth to be more important. Take a look at how UMB Financial fares in that regard, below.

NasdaqGS:UMBF Income Statement, June 17th 2019

Could UMBF's size cause it to be more volatile?

UMB Financial is a reasonably big company, with a market capitalisation of US$3.1b. Most companies this size are actively traded with decent volumes of shares changing hands each day. It's not overly surprising to see large companies with beta values reasonably close to the market average. After all, large companies make up a higher weighting of the index than do small companies.

What this means for you:

It is probable that there is a link between the share price of UMB Financial and the broader market, since it has a beta value quite close to one. However, long term investors are generally well served by looking past market volatility and focussing on the underlying development of the business. If that's your game, metrics such as revenue, earnings and cash flow will be more useful. In order to fully understand whether UMBF is a good investment for you, we also need to consider important company-specific fundamentals such as UMB Financial’s financial health and performance track record. I urge you to continue your research by taking a look at the following:

  1. Future Outlook : What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for UMBF’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for UMBF’s outlook.
  2. Past Track Record : Has UMBF been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of UMBF's historicals for more clarity.
  3. Other Interesting Stocks : It's worth checking to see how UMBF measures up against other companies on valuation. You could start with this free list of prospective options .

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com . This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.