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Crude Oil Price Update – May Be Forming Potentially Bearish Secondary Lower Top

James Hyerczyk

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading higher shortly after the mid-session. Earlier in the session, the market hit its lowest level since April 5 before rebounding and turning higher for the session.

Uncertainty surrounding the OPEC-led production cuts helped pressure prices earlier in the session on reports that Russia may be considering boosting output in an effort to take back some market share captured by the U.S.

Helping to turn the market around were concerns over the escalating military conflict in Libya. According to reports, fighting between Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army and the internationally recognized government has raised the prospect of lower supplies from the OPEC member.

At 17:44 GMT, June WTI crude oil is trading $63.85, up $0.29 or +0.47%.

Later today at 20:30 GMT, investors will get the opportunity to react to the latest weekly storage report from the American Petroleum Institute.

Daily June WTI Crude Oil

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but momentum is trending lower. A trade through $64.71 will change the main trend to up. A move through $61.92 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is down. This shifted momentum to the downside. A trade through $64.70 will change the minor trend to up and shift momentum back to the upside.

The major long-term retracement zone at $63.48 to $59.73 is major support. Trading on the strong side of this zone will give the market an upside bias.

The main range is $58.41 to $64.71. Its retracement zone at $61.56 to $60.81 is another support area.

The short-term range is $61.92 to $64.71. Its retracement zone at $63.32 to $62.99 provided support earlier today when the market reached its intraday low at $63.15.

Another short-term range is $64.71 to $63.15. It retracement zone at $63.93 to $64.11 is the next resistance zone. It was tested earlier today at $63.99. This zone is very important because sellers are likely to come in on a test of this zone in an effort to form a secondary lower top. If successful, this could send out a bearish signal.

Daily June WTI Crude Oil (Close-Up)

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the current price at $63.85, the direction of the June WTI crude oil market into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at $63.93.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $63.93 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a labored rally with potential targets $64.11, $64.21 and $64.46. The latter is the last potential resistance angle before the $64.71 main top.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $63.93 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is a support cluster at $63.71 to $63.63. If this zone fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into $63.48 then $63.32.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire