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Did Gaming and Leisure Properties’s (NASDAQ:GLPI) Share Price Deserve to Gain 25%?

Simply Wall St

Buying a low-cost index fund will get you the average market return. But if you invest in individual stocks, some are likely to underperform. That’s what has happened with the Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. ( NASDAQ:GLPI ) share price. It’s up 25% over three years, but that is below the market return. Looking at more recent returns, the stock is up 9.2% in a year.

View our latest analysis for Gaming and Leisure Properties

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During three years of share price growth, Gaming and Leisure Properties achieved compound earnings per share growth of 12% per year. The average annual share price increase of 7.6% is actually lower than the EPS growth. So one could reasonably conclude that the market has cooled on the stock.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

NasdaqGS:GLPI Past and Future Earnings, March 18th 2019

It’s probably worth noting we’ve seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. This free interactive report on Gaming and Leisure Properties’s earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Gaming and Leisure Properties, it has a TSR of 55% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It’s nice to see that Gaming and Leisure Properties shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 18% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 8.3%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares – and the price they paid.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com . This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.