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An Intrinsic Calculation For Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:CPRX) Suggests It's 32% Undervalued

Simply Wall St

How far off is Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ( NASDAQ:CPRX ) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. I will be using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model .

See our latest analysis for Catalyst Pharmaceuticals

Is Catalyst Pharmaceuticals fairly valued?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow are will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Levered FCF ($, Millions) -US$21.0 US$13.0 US$23.0 US$32.0 US$50.0 US$64.7 US$78.5 US$90.8 US$102 US$111
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 29.31% Est @ 21.34% Est @ 15.76% Est @ 11.85% Est @ 9.11%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 10.51% -US$19.0 US$10.6 US$17.0 US$21.5 US$30.3 US$35.5 US$39.0 US$40.8 US$41.3 US$40.8

Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = $257.95m

"Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 10.5%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF 2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$111m × (1 + 2.7%) ÷ (10.5% – 2.7%) = US$1.5b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r) 10 = $US$1.5b ÷ ( 1 + 10.5%) 10 = $539.13m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is $797.09m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate of $7.76 . Compared to the current share price of $5.31, the company appears quite undervalued at a 32% discount to what it is available for right now. The assumptions in a DCF have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

NasdaqCM:CPRX Intrinsic value, April 19th 2019

The assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Catalyst Pharmaceuticals as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.305. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, I've compiled three pertinent aspects you should look at:

  1. Financial Health : Does CPRX have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings : How does CPRX's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart .
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives : Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of CPRX? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every US stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here .

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com . This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.