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An Intrinsic Calculation For Itron, Inc. (NASDAQ:ITRI) Suggests It's 39% Undervalued

Simply Wall St

Does the April share price for Itron, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ITRI ) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model .

See our latest analysis for Itron

Crunching the numbers

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow are will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$108 US$207 US$237 US$263 US$285 US$304 US$321 US$336 US$350 US$363
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x3 Analyst x2 Est @ 14.35% Est @ 10.87% Est @ 8.43% Est @ 6.72% Est @ 5.52% Est @ 4.68% Est @ 4.1% Est @ 3.69%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 10.69% US$97.2 US$169 US$175 US$175 US$171 US$165 US$158 US$149 US$140 US$131

Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = $1.53b

"Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 10-year government bond rate (2.7%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 10.7%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF 2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$363m × (1 + 2.7%) ÷ (10.7% – 2.7%) = US$4.7b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r) 10 = $US$4.7b ÷ ( 1 + 10.7%) 10 = $1.69b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is $3.23b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate of $80.93 . Relative to the current share price of $49.65, the company appears quite undervalued at a 39% discount to what it is available for right now. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

NasdaqGS:ITRI Intrinsic value, April 17th 2019

Important assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Itron as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.336. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For Itron, I've put together three essential aspects you should further examine:

  1. Financial Health : Does ITRI have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings : How does ITRI's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart .
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives : Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of ITRI? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every US stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here .

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com . This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.