DIS - The Walt Disney Company

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
135.04
-0.46 (-0.34%)
At close: 4:02PM EDT
Stock chart is not supported by your current browser
Previous Close 135.50
Open 134.26
Bid 134.90 x 900
Ask 135.07 x 1100
Day's Range 134.03 - 135.98
52 Week Range 98.81 - 142.37
Volume 8,964,178
Avg. Volume 14,322,715
Market Cap 243.031B
Beta (3Y Monthly) 0.68
PE Ratio (TTM) 15.11
EPS (TTM) 8.94
Earnings Date Aug 5, 2019 - Aug 9, 2019
Forward Dividend & Yield 1.76 (1.28%)
Ex-Dividend Date 2018-12-07
1y Target Est 149.22
Trade prices are not sourced from all markets
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    Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) stock has been one of the best-performing names for the past decade. Netflix stock is up more than 6,000% since 2009, and the company's long-term growth outlook is as strong as ever.Source: Netflix However, this year, Netflix is facing a unique new challenger in Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS). Disney recently announced its highly anticipated streaming service, Disney+, will be launching in November. Disney+ will be a direct competitor to Netflix, offering the entire Disney content library at an extremely low $6.99 monthly price. * 7 Stocks to Buy that Lost 10% Last Week Some Netflix stock bulls are starting to get nervous about the potential impact Disney+ could have on Netflix's subscriber count. However, a new survey by research firm Piper Jaffray suggests Disney will likely not be a real threat to Netflix anytime soon.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips Survey Says…It's understandable that the owners of Netflix stock would be a bit uncomfortable about Disney+ given Disney's long-term track record of success in the media business. In addition, some experts have made predictions about Disney+ that are probably scary for the owners of NFLX stock.In April, a survey by Streaming Observer found that 14.5% of current Netflix subscribers are considering cancelling their Netflix subscription in favor of Disney+. Those survey results are certainly troubling for NFLX. Based on the most current numbers, 14.5% of current Netflix subscribers represent about 9 million customers. If they all jump ship for Disney+, Netflix's monthly revenue would take a $116.9 million hit.However, the latest Piper Jaffray survey of 1,536 U.S. Netflix subscribers is much less bearish for Netflix stock. Piper Jaffray found 73% of Netflix subscribers have no intention of getting a Disney+ subscription at all. In addition, 20% of Netflix subscribers intend to have subscriptions to both services.Consequently, just 7% of current Netflix subscribers intend to cancel their Netflix subscription in favor of Disney+. It's worth noting that the sample size of the Piper Jaffray survey was more than twice the size of the Streaming Observer survey. The Power of MomentumThe idea of only 7% of Netflix users switching to Disney+ is much better for NFLX stock bulls than the possibility of the company losing 14% of its customers. However, the owners of Netflix stock should still be troubled by the prospect of the company losing 7% of its customers.Fortunately, there's reason to believe the actual losses will be much smaller. Whether it's called momentum, stickiness, fear of change or sheer laziness, Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson says customers tend to be more bark than bite when it comes to switching services."We typically find that a larger percentage of subscribers say they will cancel certain services than the percentage that actually follow through on it, so the 7% figure is likely overstating the risk to the Netflix U.S. sub base," Olson says.Based on its survey results, Piper Jaffray is projecting Netflix could lose about 5% of its fiscal 2020 U.S. subscribers to Disney+. In the international market, the firm is projecting just a 1% subscriber loss to Disney. Based on his projections of revenue and earnings per user, Olson says that subscriber loss would result in about a 25-cent hit to Netflix's 2020 earnings per share. 25 cents is only about 4% of PiperJaffray's 2020 EPS target of $6.50 for NFLX. The Real Threat to NFLX StockIf Netflix loses just 4% of its 2020 market share and earnings to Disney, it's safe to say the threat will be contained. However, the survey results don't necessarily mean investors should rush in to scoop up Netflix stock.Disney is not the biggest risk to the owners of NFLX stock . The real risk is the sky-high valuation of Netflix stock. NFLX stock trades at a price-earnings ratio of 126.15 and a forward PE of 58.9, among the highest in the S&P 500. Sure, its net income was up 18.5% last quarter and its revenue jumped 22.1%. But even when growth is factored in, NFLX's PEG ratio of 2.7 is still extremely high. Its price-sales ratio (9.1) and price-book value (26.4) are the highest among the rapidly growing FANG group by a wide margin.Bulls will argue that Netflix stock price has been high for years, and it hasn't kept NFLX stock from consistently beating the market. That's a fair and true argument. But the reality is that NFLX stock is already pricing in at least several more years of exceptional growth.The bar is extremely high. Any signs that subscriber growth is slowing, Disney and other competitors are gaining market share or NFLX's profit margins aren't expanding the way the market had anticipated could tank Netflix stock price.At best, Netflix is a high-risk stock with zero wiggle room when it comes to long-term growth . At worst, NFLX stock is an overvalued name that's pricing in unrealistic optimism towards a company that can't continue growing like this forever.As of this writing, Wayne Duggan did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * 4 Top American Penny Pot Stocks (Buy Before June 21) * 10 Stocks to Sell Before They Tank Your Portfolio * Top 7 Dow Jones Stocks of 2019 -- So Far * 5 Low-Priced, High-Potential Tech Stocks to Buy Compare Brokers The post Competition Can't Touch Netflix Stock appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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    Technical analysis has a bad reputation and I can certainly understand why. Most of the technical research that I see ranges from just plain bad to downright ludicrous. As a veteran technical analyst, sometimes I just want to bow my head in shame when I see some of this garbage. However, there is a legitimate technical analysis lesson to be learned here in the stock of Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS).Source: Baron Valium via FlickrMost technical analysts study the markets and look for patterns without actually knowing just what it is they are supposed to mean. In addition, things such as Harmonic charts, Elliot wave and Gann theory are like UFOs and Bigfoot. They are fun to talk about but they are not real. In my more than twenty years as a hedge fund trader, I can honestly tell you that not once did I ever hear successful traders mention them.However, there is validity to some traditional technical analysis techniques if used and applied correctly. Things such as momentum oscillators, support and demand levels, and reversal patterns are very valid if the user actually understands what they are. Successful traders do care about these techniques.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsWhen used and understood correctly, technical patterns should be an illustration of the supply and demand dynamics that are occurring in a market. * 7 Stocks to Buy that Lost 10% Last Week When stocks make gap formations they tend to refill. A gap is a dramatic move that 'skips' price. For example, suppose that over the course of a few weeks the price of a stock trends from $5 to $10. Then one day when the market is closed, they announce earnings that beat estimates and the stock opens at $15 and trends higher to $20 over the following few weeks. On a chart, the range between $10 and $15 would show up as a gap.To understand why is gaps refill, one must understand how support levels develop. Suppose a stock spends a few weeks trading at the $20 level. There are those who bought it, those who sold it. There are also those want to buy it but for some reason they do not.Now suppose the stock trades up to $21. Those who bought it at $20 are mad at themselves for not buying more and tell themselves that if the stock gets back to $20, they will add to their position.The short-sellers who sold it at $20 now have a loss. They tell themselves that if it gets back to $20, they will cover their shorts and breakeven. The people who stayed on the sidelines are upset that they missed it and themselves that is it gets back to $20 then they will buy it. Professional traders who see that a support level is developing and they will consider buying it as $20 as well. These four interested parties will create a support level at $20.Now this is the important thing to understand. The more time a stock trades at a certain level, the more vested interest, in terms of buy and sell demand, will exist at them.If a stock gaps over a few points, there was no trading at those levels. The vested interest would not develop to the degree that it would if significant volume traded at those levels.When the stock trades back into the gap there will be little sell and buy interest so the stock could make a large move in a short period of time. A large buy or sell order could dramatically move the price of the stock. This is why gaps tend to refill. Click to Enlarge That could be the case here with DIS. On April 12 it gapped up from $117 to $130. This was the result of the company announcing the price and launch date. If you own this one, keep a close eye on this dynamic. If it trades below the $130 level, there is a chance that it could make a dramatic move right back down to levels around $117.My goal here is not to give a trade recommendation. My intention is to show how there is some validity to some of the traditional technical analysis techniques. Use common sense and try to understand how certain patterns or formations illustrate supply and demand dynamics.I promise that it will help your trading.As of this writing, Mark Putrino did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * 4 Top American Penny Pot Stocks (Buy Before June 21) * 10 Stocks to Sell Before They Tank Your Portfolio * Top 7 Dow Jones Stocks of 2019 -- So Far * 5 Low-Priced, High-Potential Tech Stocks to Buy Compare Brokers The post This Stock Could Drop to $117 in a Mouseke-Minute appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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