|Day's Range||1.129 - 1.134|
|52 Week Range||1.1223 - 1.2478|
The euro has been stuck in a trading range against the dollar for several months as growing weakness in the euro zone economy offset dwindling expectations the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates again this year. "Generally the mood is still quite positive on the outlook for trade," said Adam Cole, a currencies analyst at RBC Capital Markets, adding that he thought the "risk-on" mood would continue. You have a background of quite decent growth and a Fed that is putting rates on hold." However, he said a better way to play the Fed's pausing of rate increases was in dollar/yen, as more Japanese investors choose not to hedge purchases of dollar-denominated assets that already earn a decent yield after 2018's U.S. rate rise.
The early price action shows support is the pivot at 1.1288. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for buyers to make a run at 1.1342. Taking out this level will change the main trend to up.
The pair is getting hammered due to ECB’s dovish attitude and weak economic numbers from the European Union. The pair is likely to continue consolidating between the 1.12 and 1.15 level and will also remain volatile.
Risk appetite delivers early moves across the riskier asset classes. With a light economic calendar, vehicle sales out of China will be of interest.
Investing.com -- Foreign exchange markets got off to a slow start Monday, with trading set to remain subdued due to a sparse data calendar in Europe and public holidays in North America.
Judging from the way the dollar index is weighted, the best bet for another surge to the upside will be a weaker Euro, Japanese Yen and British Pound.
The ECB, the FED, and the RBA release meeting minutes in the week, as the markets look for any more signs of a possible recession. Trade talks also resume.
Investing.com - Despite a holiday-shortened week in the U.S. the economic calendar for this week is busy, with U.S.-China trade talks continuing in Washington and Federal Reserve minutes and U.S. economic reports on tap.
Trade talks delivered strong gains across the European and U.S equity markets last week. What’s on the horizon for the DAX and EUR?
The U.S. dollar loses its strength in late Friday trading amid President Donald Trump’s signing of a spending bill that will avoid a renewed partial government shutdown and his declaration of a national emergency on border security.
President Donald Trump has sent a letter to the House and Senate informing them that he has declared a national emergency. The declaration allows the secretary of defense to order units or reservists to active duty to support Department of Homeland Security activities at the southern border and to "engage in emergency construction as necessary to support the use of the Armed Forces and respond to the crisis at our southern border."
European stocks finish sharply higher Friday, helping the pan-European benchmark produce its best weekly gain since early November, as investors cheer signs of progress on a U.S.-China trade deal.
The Euro drifted a bit lower during the week as we continue to see concerns about the German economy and the global economy as well. Ultimately, I think that the market does have a significant amount of support underneath though.
The Euro try to break down during the trading session on Friday, after comments by an ECB member. However, it has shown a resilient attitude, as we have turned right back around to show signs of life.
Euro zone banking shares jumped over three percent, the euro fell and Italy's bond yields tumbled on Friday after the European Central Bank's Benoit Coeure said a new round of cheap multi-year loans to banks was possible. Weak economic data, combined with uncertainty over Brexit and global trade tensions, have raised expectations that fresh stimulus measures from the ECB are likely in coming months. Banks in Italy and other southern European countries in particular could face funding problems as the ECB's most recent Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO) nears its repayment date in 2020.
The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for February rebounded, with the index rising to 95.5 from 91.2 in January, which was the worst since Nov. 2016. Economists polled by MarketWatch expected a 94 reading. "The early February gains reflect the end of the partial government shutdown as well as a more fundamental shift in consumer expectations due to the Fed's pause in raising interest rates," said Richard Curtin, the chief economist for the survey.
Investing.com – The dollar was modestly higher against its rivals Friday and remained on track to post consecutive weekly gains for the first time since November. The dollar's rise came as traders digested mostly negative U.S. economic data.
Based on the early price action the direction of the EUR/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the resistance cluster at 1.1294 to 1.1296. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Yesterday’s closing price reversal bottom was an attempt to shift momentum to the upside, but there wasn’t a confirming follow-through rally today.
The euro zone's trade surplus in goods with the rest of the world shrank last year because of higher imports, data from the European Union's statistics office Eurostat showed on Friday. Eurostat said the unadjusted trade surplus of the 19-country currency bloc amounted to 194.2 billion euros (£171.03 billion) in 2018, down from 234.9 billion euros in 2017. Euro zone imports increased last year by 6.2 percent, while exports rose only 3.7 percent compared to 2017.
With the poor economic numbers from the US, the market is likely to favour a move to the upside and try moving towards the top of the consolidation phase to the 1.15 handle. The pair is now testing support at the 50% Fibonacci scale, and next major support is at the 1.27 level, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The market is likely to remain choppy and with poor economic numbers from the US, AUD is likely to gain a bit of momentum.
Tightening German-US yield spreads and weak USD leads to consolidative price action.
Theresa May’s troubles continue to pin back the Pound and the stats have provided little help. More swings on the cards later today.
Investing.com -- The dollar was edging higher against major European currencies early Friday in Europe after weak Chinese inflation data overnight reinforced concerns about global growth.
The U.S. dollar was weaker Thursday in a volatile session that was marked by a round of weaker-than-expected economic data that briefly overshadowed optimism over U.S.-China trade talks. Meanwhile, the euro and British pound grappled with slowing growth and continued drama surrounding Britain’s efforts to exit from the European Union with a new trade agreement. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, first flipped in to negative territory during Thursday’s session after retail sales data for December showed an unexpected 1.2% decline, the worst drop in nine years.